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Michaelincem

12 Jun 2025 - 01:16 pm

There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
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A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic.

It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”

Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.

Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life.

The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.

All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so.

For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November.

It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Why so many ghosts?
No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data.

The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.

The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.

Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.

The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.

Timothyglike

12 Jun 2025 - 11:25 am

Curve Finance: Leading DeFi Liquidity and Stablecoin Protocol
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Curve finance crypto encompasses the native tokens (such as CRV), liquidity provider tokens, and other assets within the Curve ecosystem. These tokens are used for governance, staking, and earning rewards.

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A Curve liquidity pool is a smart contract that holds assets like stablecoins or similar tokens, allowing users to deposit and earn fees or rewards. These pools are optimized for low slippage and high efficiency, supporting large trading volumes.

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While primarily known for liquidity provision and swaps, Curve also supports borrowing mechanisms indirectly through integrations with lending protocols like Aave or Compound, where users can collateralize assets and borrow against their liquidity pool tokens.

Scottopexy

10 Jun 2025 - 07:14 am

Tbilisi, Georgia — Jailed journalist Mzia Amaghlobeli gets weaker every day as her hunger strike has reached three weeks in Rustavi, a town near the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, her lawyer says. Now the 49-year-old is having difficulty walking the short distance from her cell to the room where they usually meet, and human rights officials, colleagues and family fear for her life.
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Amaghlobeli was arrested Jan. 12 during an anti-government protest in the coastal city of Batumi, one of over 40 people in custody on criminal charges from a series of demonstrations that have hit the South Caucasus nation of 3.7 million in recent months.
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The political turmoil follows a parliamentary election that was won by the ruling Georgian Dream party, although its opponents allege the vote was rigged.

Protests highlight battle over Georgia's future. Here's why it matters.
Its outcome pushed Georgia further into Russia's orbit of influence. Georgia aspired to join the European Union, but the party suspended accession talks with the bloc after the election.

As it sought to cement its grip on power, Georgian Dream has cracked down on freedom of assembly and expression in what the opposition says is similar to President Vladimir Putin's actions in neighboring Russia, its former imperial ruler.
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Modestoarito

10 Jun 2025 - 05:31 am

Tbilisi, Georgia — Jailed journalist Mzia Amaghlobeli gets weaker every day as her hunger strike has reached three weeks in Rustavi, a town near the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, her lawyer says. Now the 49-year-old is having difficulty walking the short distance from her cell to the room where they usually meet, and human rights officials, colleagues and family fear for her life.
kra24.at
Amaghlobeli was arrested Jan. 12 during an anti-government protest in the coastal city of Batumi, one of over 40 people in custody on criminal charges from a series of demonstrations that have hit the South Caucasus nation of 3.7 million in recent months.
kra24.at
The political turmoil follows a parliamentary election that was won by the ruling Georgian Dream party, although its opponents allege the vote was rigged.

Protests highlight battle over Georgia's future. Here's why it matters.
Its outcome pushed Georgia further into Russia's orbit of influence. Georgia aspired to join the European Union, but the party suspended accession talks with the bloc after the election.

As it sought to cement its grip on power, Georgian Dream has cracked down on freedom of assembly and expression in what the opposition says is similar to President Vladimir Putin's actions in neighboring Russia, its former imperial ruler.
kra21.at
https://kra30at.ru

Jamesmop

09 Jun 2025 - 10:05 am

Crime
U.S. charges sibling leaders of ruthless Mexico cartel, offers $8 million reward for information leading to their capture
Updated on: April 16, 2025 / 7:02 AM EDT / CBS/AP
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Federal authorities said Tuesday that they have indicted the top two leaders of a Mexican drug cartel and are offering up to $8 million rewards for information leading to their capture and conviction.
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Johnny Hurtado Olascoaga and Jose Alfredo Hurtado Olascoaga, are accused of participating in a conspiracy to manufacture cocaine, heroin, methamphetamine and fentanyl and importing and distributing the drugs in the United States, authorities said during a news conference in Atlanta. The newly unsealed three-count indictment was returned by a grand jury in September.
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The two brothers are the leaders of La Nueva Familia Michoacana, a Mexican cartel that was formally designated by the U.S. government in February as a "foreign terrorist organization," authorities said.

"If you contribute to the death of Americans by peddling poison into our communities, we will work relentlessly to find you and bring you to justice," Attorney General Pam Bondi said in a statement.

The State Department is offering up to $5 million for information leading to the arrest and/or conviction of Johnny Hurtado Olascoaga and up to $3 million for information about Jose Alfredo Hurtado Olascoaga, who also goes by the name "The Strawberry." Both men are believed to be in Mexico, officials said.

Separately the U.S. Treasury announced new sanctions Wednesday against the two men and well as two other alleged leaders of the cartel, which the U.S. designates as a "foreign terrorist organization."

In addition to drug trafficking, the Familia Michoacana cartel has also engaged in extortions, kidnappings and murders, according to U.S. prosecutors.
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Seronystill

08 Jun 2025 - 07:32 pm

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Victorvaw

08 Jun 2025 - 08:34 am

Americans nearing retirement and recent retirees said they were anxious and frustrated following a second day of market turmoil that hit their 401(k)s after President Donald Trump’s escalation of tariffs.

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As the impending tariffs shook the global economy Friday, people who were planning on their retirement accounts to carry them through their golden years said the economic chaos was hitting too close to home.

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Some said they are pausing big-ticket purchases and reconsidering home renovations, while others said they fear their quality of life will be adversely affected by all the turmoil.

“I’m just kind of stunned, and with so much money in the market, we just sort of have to hope we have enough time to recover,” said Paula, 68, a former occupational health professional in New Jersey who retired three years ago.

Paula, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because she feared retaliation for speaking out against Trump administration policies, said she was worried about what lies ahead.
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“What we’ve been doing is trying to enjoy the time that we have, but you want to be able to make it last,” Paula said Friday. “I have no confidence here.”

Trump fulfilled his campaign promise this week to unleash sweeping tariffs, including on the United States’ largest trading partners, in a move that has sparked fears of a global trade war. The decision sent the stock market spinning. On Friday afternoon, the broad-based S&P 500 closed down 6%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 5.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 2,200 points, or about 5.5%.

Billytag

08 Jun 2025 - 08:30 am

Americans nearing retirement and recent retirees said they were anxious and frustrated following a second day of market turmoil that hit their 401(k)s after President Donald Trump’s escalation of tariffs.

kraken23
As the impending tariffs shook the global economy Friday, people who were planning on their retirement accounts to carry them through their golden years said the economic chaos was hitting too close to home.

kraken14 at
Some said they are pausing big-ticket purchases and reconsidering home renovations, while others said they fear their quality of life will be adversely affected by all the turmoil.

“I’m just kind of stunned, and with so much money in the market, we just sort of have to hope we have enough time to recover,” said Paula, 68, a former occupational health professional in New Jersey who retired three years ago.

Paula, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because she feared retaliation for speaking out against Trump administration policies, said she was worried about what lies ahead.
https://kra18x.cc
“What we’ve been doing is trying to enjoy the time that we have, but you want to be able to make it last,” Paula said Friday. “I have no confidence here.”

Trump fulfilled his campaign promise this week to unleash sweeping tariffs, including on the United States’ largest trading partners, in a move that has sparked fears of a global trade war. The decision sent the stock market spinning. On Friday afternoon, the broad-based S&P 500 closed down 6%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 5.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 2,200 points, or about 5.5%.

Michaelfam

07 Jun 2025 - 05:34 pm

Les adherents du parti Les Republicains sont appeles a voter, samedi et dimanche, pour choisir leur futur president. Mais entre Bruno Retailleau et Laurent Wauquiez, peu de differences ideologiques existent : a l’image de ce qu’est devenu leur parti depuis 2017, tous deux font campagne a droite toute en misant sur les questions d’immigration et de securite.
kra33 cc
Publie le : 16/05/2025 - 10:45
Modifie le : 16/05/2025 - 10:52

6 minTemps de lecture
kra33 cc
Par :
Romain BRUNET
Laurent Wauquiez et Bruno Retailleau, le 19 septembre 2024, arrivant a Matignon.
Laurent Wauquiez et Bruno Retailleau, le 19 septembre 2024, arrivant a Matignon. © Ludovic Marin, AFP
Apres plusieurs semaines de campagne, difficile de savoir qui de Bruno Retailleau ou Laurent Wauquiez remportera la presidence du parti Les Republicains (LR). Les adherents du parti de droite sont invites a les departager, samedi 17 et dimanche 18 mai, pour choisir celui qui incarnera desormais LR, avec en toile de fond l’election presidentielle de 2027.

Mais comment choisir entre deux candidats presentant si peu de differences de ligne ideologique ? Bruno Retailleau et Laurent Wauquiez placent constamment l’immigration et la securite au centre de leurs discours. Si bien que pour exister face a un candidat-ministre devenu favori et omnipresent dans les medias, l’ancien president de la region Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes s’est senti oblige de jouer la surenchere en proposant, le 8 avril dans le JDNews, "que les etrangers dangereux sous OQTF de quitter le territoire francais] soient enfermes dans un centre de retention a Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, hors de l’Hexagone".

kra33
https://kra-33--at.ru

Allentound

07 Jun 2025 - 12:10 pm

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